Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
