Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
